UK to avoid recession as Brexit shock passes

Forecasts by credit agency Moody’s show that Britain’s economy will not go anywhere near recession as a result of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.

The forecasts come on the day that ONS reported a 6% spike in UK retail sales in the month following the EU referendum – HERE.

Moody’s have today issued growth forecasts at 1.5% for 2016, and 1.2% in 2017 – (as reported HERE).

Senior Analyst, Madhavi Bokil, said that any short term uncertainty over the future of Britain’s relationship with the common market would be mitigated by boosts to exports as a result of the fall in sterling.

Despite early fears reported by the media, the analysis by Moody’s shows that economists now believe that the impact of the vote will be relatively modest.

Leader of the Welsh Conservatives, Andrew RT Davies, said:

“In contrast to the apocalyptic vision painted by sections of the media and leaders of the Remain campaign, we are seeing a very different picture in the weeks after the referendum.

“Stock prices have recovered, retail sales have spiked significantly, and analysis by Moody’s now suggests that the recession we were promised is very unlikely to materialise.

“There’s plenty of good news out there and the Welsh Labour Government needs to work hard to embrace the opportunities that Brexit presents, both for Wales and the UK as a whole.”

Mr Davies also warned

“We are regularly told that confidence is key, and people should be mindful of the negative impact of talking the British economy down.

“We have an invaluable opportunity to shape a new future for Wales outside the EU, but I have serious concerns that there are some politicians who are actively willing Brexit to fail.

“Brexit is happening, our relationship with the EU will change, and the next steps need to be taken together in a spirit of conciliation.

“Carwyn Jones has previously rejected cross-platform co-operation over Europe, and his attitude of hostility to those who campaigned for a Vote to Leave will be counter-productive in the long run.

“This isn’t a question of us and them, of leavers and remainers. It’s an opportunity to take Wales and the UK forward, and we all need to be pulling in the same direction to get the best possible deal.”