Explosive analysis shows 39 of 40 Welsh seats now back staying in the EU

56.2% of people across Wales would now vote to retain our EU membership, up from 47.4% in June 2016 according to in depth research commissioned by Best for Britain and HOPE not hate. 

The analysis showed that across Great Britain, 56.1% would now vote to remain.

The results also found that two thirds of people (66%) want the public to have the final say on the Brexit deal. 

The constituency level analysis also revealed that 422 of 632 GB constituencies now have majority support for remain, up from 229 in the 2016 referendum, and that the country would now vote 56% to stay in the EU.

This includes a majority of English constituencies for the first time, as well as all Scottish seats and all but one seat in Wales. 

In Wales, 28 seats have now switched from backing leave to remain since the June 2016 vote.

The analysis also showed 67% in Wales backed the people having the final say on the Brexit deal.

The analysis, using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) methodology, is based on polling by Populus of over 8000 people across Great Britain. The MRP analysis was undertaken by Focaldata, an award-winning AI start-up focused on market research. It follows a similar MRP study conducted by YouGov and Focaldata for Best for Britain and HOPE not hate in July allowing us to follow trends on just how quickly the country is changing its mind on Brexit. 

Commenting, Best for Britain champion David Lammy MP said:

“This shows that huge swathes of the country have changed their minds on Brexit.

“Whether they voted leave or remain in 2016, every single constituency now supports giving the public a final say on May’s deal.

“If we do not give the public the opportunity to voice their changed opinion on the most important decision of our lifetime, we stop being a democracy.”

Dominic Grieve MP added: 

“There is now overwhelming evidence that the will of the people is changing. Every single constituency supports having a final say, and the country now clearly wants to keep our current deal with the EU.

“I can’t look my constituents in the eye and honestly tell them they’ll be better off if Brexit goes ahead. They know that not to be true, and so do I. Brexit is the biggest political decision for a generation so it’s only right that the people have the final say.”

Best for Britain CEO Eloise Todd said:

“The country is shifting in one direction. Two and a half years since the 2016 vote, people across the country are coming to the same conclusion no matter how they voted then: Brexit won’t deliver. 

“The PM is trying to strongarm MPs into backing the slim pickings of her deal, using the prospect of no deal to scare them into acceptance. 

“Brits will not be blackmailed on Brexit. Our research shows people across the nation have decided we are better off with the EU deal we currently have.”

Nick Lowles, CEO of HOPE not hate said:

“It is increasingly clear that our communities, families and our children will be worse off under Brexit. The divisions in our society are sometimes used as a reason why Brexit should go ahead – but leaving the EU would actually only entrench those problems further as it will do nothing to stem the decline in the very communities that have suffered most over the last 30 years. 

“Brexit will only make things worse and when that happens the people in these communities, who voted for Brexit because they were told it would improve their lives, will be even angrier and feel even more betrayed.

“The reality of Brexit is becoming clear and it’s therefore not surprising that people in former industrial towns are now changing their minds. 

“It is tempting for MPs to be directed by how their constituents voted in 2016, but they must do what’s best for their constituents and implementing Brexit is not that.”