Economic Expectations for Europe Strongly Influenced by Greek Crisis

Results of GfK Consumer Climate Europe for the second quarter of 2015

The lengthy negotiations between Greece and its creditors have clearly influenced the mood of consumers in most European countries in the second quarter of this year. Particularly in Eastern European countries, however, the crisis between Russia and the Ukraine is also playing a major role. Nevertheless, the GfK Consumer Climate EU28 has increased by 1 point overall since March, to 10.8 points. These are results for the GfK Consumer Climate for Europe from 15 European countries.

The Greek crisis largely set the mood for European consumers in the second quarter of this year, and the economic expectations in several individual countries has stagnated or decreased as a result. At the time of the poll, which was carried out in the first two weeks of June, the negotiations between Greece and its creditors had increasingly come to a head. The recent climax (the projected failure of the negotiations, potential closure of Greek banks, the referendum and then the last minute agreed deal) is therefore not reflected in this survey. It is assumed that the mood of the people in Europe, primarily within the Monetary Union, may deteriorate even more significantly over the summer, depending on the Greek outcome. This applies, in particular, to countries like Germany, Italy, France, and Spain, which either bear a high share of Greece’s debts or are also struggling with a difficult economic situation.

The developments of the income expectations as well as the propensity to buy vary among the different countries. Country-specific influences in the second quarter were stronger here than the possible effects of Greece’s exit from the European Monetary Union. Nevertheless, the GfK Consumer Climate EU28 has increased by 1 point overall since March to 10.8 for the second quarter.