Stuart Cole, Author of Wales Transport Strategy, creator of Trawscymru and problems with the T3/T2 /T1 routes

Reply-To: john.mct@

 

Copies Welsh MPs,Welsh Assembly Members, Ceredigion Council Members, Powys Council members, Gwynedd Council members, Carmarthenshire Council members, Aberystwyth Town Council members

 

Dear Professor Stuart Cole,

I understand from a recent article published on May 25 2018 (See Appendix 1) and various other publications  that you created and set up TrawsCymru and Bwcabus for the Welsh Government .   I also understand that you have been Chairman of the Wales Transport Strategy Group from 1999 to the present (co-authoring the Welsh Government Transport Strategy)  and that you have been employed since 2010 in a consultancy role as a specialist advisor on the creation of a new Traws Cymru national coach network, and on Traws Cymru route development.

I therefore wish to make you aware of 3 problems with the Trawscymru Network which the Welsh Government have failed to address.   Before I go any further Ken Skates the Minister has decided that my correspondence is “vexatious” and all my correspondence will be filed and ignored by the Welsh Government.  Therefore you may wish to do the same, especially in view of your “out of office “ message response to emails.  I sincerely hope that you do not and you take time to read this and  would hope that for the benefit of the Welsh travelling public you will listen to what I have to say and take action accordingly.   Since you obviously enjoy publicity perhaps the media could also obtain your views on the problems with the Trawscymru network.

THERE ARE 3 PROBLEMS:-

(1) A Trawscymru T3 route between Wrexham and Barmouth, which does not work.  (with links to the T2 Bangor to Aberystwyth service in Dolgellau).

(2) A Trawscymru T2/T1 route between Bangor and Carmarthen with a service change in Aberystwyth which does not work.

(3) A Trawscymru T3 route between Aberystwyth and Wrexham, which was recommended instead of the Wrexham to Barmouth route in 2013, but which as yet has not been evaluated by the Welsh Government.

THE HISTORY OF THESE ROUTES IS AS FOLLOWS:-

(1) The Welsh Transport Strategy was published in 2008 and revised in 2013. This document contained a key action to improve journey times and reliability on the Bangor to Carmarthen route (T2/T1). The Welsh Transport Strategy was co-authored by Professor Stuart Cole .

(2) In 2013 the Welsh Government reported on a public consultation carried out on the TrawsCambria network when a government spokesman said over 300 responses were received to the consultation exercise and 70% of respondents supported the introduction of more limited stop faster express services between major centres.

(3) In 2013 the Welsh Government commissioned an independent review of the Trawscymru by the Bevan Foundation . This review, based on views from stakeholders across Wales, concluded that the T2/T1 Bangor to Carmarthen route was strategically more important than a Wrexham to Barmouth route and recommended a feasibility study on a Wrexham to Aberystwyth route.

(4) The recommended feasibility study on a Wrexham to Aberystwyth route was not carried out and in late 2014 the T3 route was introduced between Wrexham and Barmouth.

(5)  The Trawscymru T3 Wrexham to Barmouth service is not a strategic, express service .  The public consultation of 2013, where 70% of respondents supported the introduction of more limited stop faster express services between major centres, was ignored by the Welsh Government .  The Trawscymru T3 Wrexham to Barmouth service is a slow local bus service which takes frequent diversions from the main roads to service outlying villages off the direct route ( 42% of the route between Wrexham and Dolgellau consists of diversions from the main

roads) .   The route has not changed in the last 53 years since a bus was introduced in 1965 when the Ruabon to Barmouth railway was closed .

The service is unreliable, and is consistently late. The journey between Wrexham and Dolgellau takes 2 hours and 10 minutes if it is on time.  It was decided by the Welsh Government that the T3 would connect in Dolgellau with both of the T2 services going North and South between Bangor and Aberystwyth.   The T2 services run hourly or 2 hourly, so there is an obvious connection problem in Dolgellau when the T3 service, (at best), will arrive from Wrexham 10 minutes beyond 2 hours.

 

(6) The decision to carry on with the Wrexham to Barmouth route, ignore the review of a Wrexham to Aberystwyth route and not attempt to redesign the Wrexham to Barmouth route (unchanged in 53 years) was bizarre,  but what happened next was pure theatre.  The T2/T1 route between Bangor and Carmarthen is 133 miles long and required 15 minutes connectivity between T2 and T1 in Aberystwyth.. When the T3 was introduced in November 2014 the Welsh Government moved  connectivity time from Aberystwyth to Dolgellau and held back both the T2 services going North and South  in Dolgellau to wait for late running T3 services . The Welsh Government not only moved connectivity time from Aberystwyth to Dolgellau , but they also introduced a Quality Partnership Agreement in Dolgellau where the T2 bus departures could be delayed by upto 10 minutes beyond their timetabled departure time to wait for late running

T3 services from Wrexham.  The 10 minutes delayed departures were illegal and, after complaints to the Welsh Traffic Commissioner, the Welsh Government were forced in 2016 to reduce this extra delay to 5 minutes.  The last T2 service of the day from Bangor, which I used to use , left Dolgellau at 17.20 and arrived in Aberystwyth at 18.25 to connect with the last T1 service of the day to Carmarthen which departed at 18.40. After the introduction of the T3, the last T2 of the day left Dolgellau at 17.35 , arrived in Aberystwyth at 18.40 and was designated by Trawscymru as a non-connecting service with the 18.40 T1 departure to Carmarthen . This meant that passengers from North of Aberystwyth on the 18.40 T2 arrival could not use the T1 to connect with the last train to Cardiff in Carmarthen.    The removal of connectivity time from Aberystwyth to Dolgellau has destroyed connectivity between the T2 and T1 in Aberystwyth on  all services .   Passengers going North on the T1 from Carmarthen now have to wait between 46 minutes and 1 hour 46 minutes to connect with a T2 service going North to Bangor.

(7) On 14th November 2017 Ken Skates asked his officials to commission a review of a T3 Aberystwyth to Wrexham route. This review has not taken place and instead , on 1st January 2018 extra T3 services were introduced on the Wrexham to Barmouth route.  In February 2018 a North Wales Council revealed that instead of reviewing an Aberystwyth to Wrexham route the Welsh Government were considering a route from Oswestry/Chirk to Bangor (via Wrexham and crossing the Transport Minister’s Assembly constituency of South Clwyd)

(8) The current situation with the T3/T2/T1 services works for nobody. The T3 is consistently late, frequently arrives more than 15 minutes late in both Wrexham and Dolgellau.  T2 services are being held back in Dolgellau for 15 minutes often unnecessarily because the T3 from Wrexham does not arrive and the T2/T1 services between Bangor and Carmarthen do not connect in Aberystwyth because the T2 has been held back in Dolgellau.

THE SOLUTION TO THE 3 PROBLEMS:-

(1) Redesign the T3 Wrexham to Barmouth route which has not changed in 53 years.

The problem with the route is the connection difficulties in Dolgellau which are due to the long journey time between Wrexham and Dolgellau (2 hours and 10 minutes). T2 services between Bangor and Aberystwyth are being held back by upto 15 minutes to wait for late running T3 services from Wrexham and this is destroying connectivity between the T2/T1 in Aberystwyth. The journey time between Wrexham and Dolgellau needs to be reduced to below 2 hours in order to avoid the 15 minute delays to the T2 services.

There are 2 areas on the route between Wrexham and Dolgellau  that could be changed:-

(a) The first area is the part of the T3 route between Wrexham and Llangollen.   An Arriva no 5 bus service runs every 15 minutes/half hour (24 services per day in both directions) between Wrexham and Llangollen on exactly the same route as the Trawscymru T3 service and takes the same amount of time as the T3 (35 minutes)  to cover the same journey.

The T3 diversion between Wrexham and Llangollen could be discontinued in favour of a direct T3 route between Wrexham and Llangollen via the A5/A483 to save between 10 and 15 minutes in T3 journey time both into and out of Wrexham.

(b) The second area is the part of the T3 route between Corwen and Bala on the B4407 which services the villages of Llanuchlynn, Llanderfel , Llandrillo and Cynwyd in the AM constituency of South Clwyd.  The B4407 route which follows the old route of the Ruabon to Barmouth railway takes 35 minutes on very narrow, winding roads with logging wagons and an Ivor Williams factory with HGVs to contend with. The route picks up and drops off few passengers. There would be a strong argument that a difficult 35 minute diversion like this would be better served by a circular local bus between Bala and Corwen, on the Bwcabus principal, to allow passengers from these villages to connect with the T3 on the A494 in Bala or Corwen.  A direct route on the A494 between Corwen and Bala would save 15 minutes in journey time.

(2) Move connectivity time back to Aberystwyth from Dolgellau to restore T2/T1 connectivity.

A 15 minutes reduction in journey time for the T3 should allow 15 miutes of connectivity time to be returned to Aberystwyth. This could be achieved by adopting either of the above two design changes to the T3 route to bring the T3 service more in line with a direct, express service.  Adoption of both of the above design changes would make absolutely sure that all T3 Wrexham to Barmouth services would arrive in Dolgellau well before the T2 services and the T2 services would not be subjected to the 15 minute delays.

Movement of 15 miutes of connectivity time back to Aberystwyth would allow connectivity to be restored between T2 and T1 on the Bangor to Carmarthen route.

(3) _Introduce a Trawscymru T3 Aberystwyth to Wrexham service Aberystwyth is a strategic destination, whereas Barmouth is not a strategic destination.

Passengers from Wrexham wishing to travel to Bangor do not need to use the T3/T2 route via Dolgellau.  There are easier options to cross North Wales both by bus and rail.

Passengers from Wrexham wishing to travel to Aberystwyth using the T3/T2 route will take 5.5 hours if they manage to catch the T2 connection in Dolgellau.  If  the T3 from Wrexham is more than 15 minutes late, which happens often,  then the journey time is 6.5 or even 7.5 hours.

The Bevan Foundation report of 2013 recommended that the T3 route should run between Wrexham and Aberystwyth instead of Barmouth. This recommendation was not acted upon. The Wrexham to Aberystwyth route via Oswestry, Welshpool , Newtown and Machynleth would take 4 hours maximum instead of 5.5 hours on the T3/T2 route via Dolgellau.   This recommendation would have avoided all the problems now inflicted on

T2/T1 connectivity in Aberystwyth as there would have been no 15 minute delays in Dolgellau. The Trawscymru network would have been greatly enhanced by a T3 route between Wrexham and Aberystwyth. The T3 route between Wrexham and Aberystwyth would have been able to connect with the

T5 to Cardiff in Newtown and connect with both the T1 to Carmarthen and the T5 to Cardigan/Haverfordwest/Fishguard in Aberystwyth.  This would have provided a unique route between the South-West of Wales and the North-East of Wales as well as improving long distance Trawscymru services in Mid and West Wales.

The Bevan Foundation report of 2013 was ignored and the review of a T3 route between Wrexham and Aberystwyth commissioned by Ken Skates on 14 th November 2017  has also been ignored.

ACTION TO RESOLVE THE 3 PROBLEMS:-

Judging by your position as Chairman of the Wales Transport Strategy Group and  your consultancy role as a specialist advisor on TrawsCymru route development, you have been in a position to influence the Welsh Government .  It would be interesting to know Professor Cole’s explanation of (1) Why the Bevan Foundation Review recommendation in

2013 was ignored and the T3 route between Aberystwyth and Wrexham was not examined (2) Why no development work was carried out on the T3 Wrexham to Barmouth route which remains unchanged after 53 years (3) Why connectivity on the Bangor to Carmarthen (T2/T1)  route in Aberystwyth was sacrificed to provide connectivity between the T3 and the T2 services in Dolgellau when removing connectivity in Aberystwyth contravened a key action in the Welsh Government Transport Strategy to improve journey times on the T2/T1  route (4) Why a review of a T3 Aberystwyth to Wrexham route commissioned by Ken Skates on 14/11/2017 has been ignored for a second time .

I assume in view of your recent publicity you are still in a position to influence the Welsh Government.  In order to resolve these 3 problems the Welsh Government should admit they have made a mistake .

The review of a Trawscymru Aberystwyth to Wrexham route should be carried out urgently. The benefits to be gained from adoption of this route are massive for  the North-East and South-West of Wales and for Mid and West Wales.

The design of the T3 route between Wrexham and Dolgellau should be examined with a view to reducing the journey time to under 2 hours by employing a more direct route.

The long delays to the T2 Bangor to Aberystwyth services in Dolgellau to wait for late running T3 services from Wrexham should be removed.   The Connectivity time removed from Aberystwyth in 2014 to allow T2 services to wait in Dolgellau for late running T3 services from Wrexham should be returned to Aberystwyth to allow connectivity between T2 and T1 in Aberystwyth to be restored on the Bangor to Carmarthen route.

I enclose below in Appendix 2 the questions I have posed to Ken Skates on the subject which I know will go unanswered . It may well be you could ask the same questions and receive a sensible answer.

Yours sincerely

Dr John McTighe

APPENDIX 1

 

Part of an article published May 25, 2018 along with a photo of Professor Stuart Cole with Elin Jones (Welsh Assembly Llwyd) holding a Trawscymru advertising placard.

”The Welsh Government turned to Professor Stuart Cole a legend in the bus and coach world, and Professor Stuart Cole was tasked by the Minister to create a network of routes to revive bus use across Wales.

Professor Stuart Cole explained to me the incredible work that he has been achieving across Wales with Trans Cymru Bus network. What Stuart and his team have done is just brilliant. and it just goes to show that if the intent is there then anything is possible. I take great heart from just what can be achieved if the political and public will is strong enough. What Stuart and his team have done with the excellent support of the Welsh Assembly and Local Authorities is just brilliant, and it just goes to show that if the intent is there then anything is possible.”

APPENDIX 2

Question 1 Could the Minister give the reason why the review of a T3 Aberystwyth to Wrexham route has not been started.?.   (the review was commissioned by the Minister on 14/11/2017 in a letter to Alun Williams, Ceredigion Councillor responsible for transport and was recommended by the Bevan Foundation review of Trawscymru in 2013).    The current T2/T3 route from Aberystwyth to Wrexham takes 5.5 hours and this could be cut to 4 hours by a direct , strategic, express service route via Machynleth Newtown,  Welshpool and Oswestry

Question 2 Could the Minister say when the review of a T3 Aberystwyth to Wrexham route will be started and when it will be completed.?

Question 3 Could the Minister say when the Welsh Government Transport Strategy (Chapter 4 – Focusing our work: strategic priorities Page 48) will be addressed and when the Welsh Government will take action to improve journey times and reliability on the strategic North/South T2/T1 route between Bangor and Carmarthen , which has links to the rail network at Bangor, Porthmadog, Machynleth, Aberystwyth and Carmarthen. ?.    (The strategic North/South T2/T1 route between Bangor and Carmarthen is currently dysfunctional because of the 15 minute delays to the T2 services in Dolgellau, in both North and South directions, these delays being required to wait for late running T3 services from Wrexham)

Question 4 Could the Minister give the reason why the T3 route between Wrexham and Dolgellau follows exactly the same route as the D94 Crossville Motors bus service which replaced the Ruabon to Barmouth railway following its closure 53 years ago in 1965 .?

Question 5 Could the Minister give the reason why the T3 route was not redesigned when it was introduced in 2014 to replace the Arriva X94 service.?    (The Trawscymru Network Manager has said the T3 route was “designed” as a “strategic” East-West route requiring connections with the T2/T1 North/South route between Bangor and Carmarthen.)

Question 6  Is the Minister aware that in 2013 the Welsh Government reported on a public consultation carried out on the TrawsCambria network when a government spokesman said over 300 responses were received to the consultation exercise and 70% of respondents supported the introduction of more limited stop faster express services between major centres. ?

Question 7  In view of the fact that in 2013  ””70% of respondents supported  the introduction of more limited stop faster express services between major centres””,  could the Minister give the reason why theT3 route between Wrexham and Dolgellau, introduced a year later in 2014, has 42% of its length as diversions off the direct route to service outlying settlements.?

Question 8  Is the Minister aware that 17 T3 services per day (9 from Dolgellau and 8 from Wrexham)  are being diverted off the direct route between Dolgellau and Wrexham to service the villages of Llanuchlynn, Llanderfel , Llandrillo and Cynwyd in the AM constituency of South Clwyd. ?

Question 9 Could the Minister give the reason why the published journey time in the timetable for the T3 service is 2 hours for the journey from Dolgellau to Wrexham and 2 hours 10 minutes from Wrexham to Dolgellau.?

Question 10  Could the Minister give the reason why the T3 service is consistently between 9 and 20 minutes late in arriving at Wrexham and Dolgellau.?  (NB This is based on my experience of 2 years using theT2/T1 route through Dolgellau on a weekly basis and having to wait in Dolgellau for late T3 services from Wrexham as well as being based on my recent experience of using the T3 in May 2018)

Question 11  Could the Minister say whether the consistent lateness of between 9 and 20 minutes of the T3 service is the reason that T2 services going North and South between Bangor and Aberystwyth have to be held back for 15 minutes in Dolgellau to wait for the T3 service from Wrexham. ?

Question 12 Is the Minister aware that an Arriva no 5 bus service runs every 15 minutes/half hour (24 services per day in both directions) between Wrexham and Llangollen on exactly the same route as the Trawscymru T3 service and takes the same amount of time as the T3 (35minutes)  to cover the same journey .?

QUESTION 13  IS THE MINISTER AWARE THAT AN X5  WREXHAM TO CORWEN SERVICE ,(WHICH COVERS EXACTLY THE SAME ROUTE  AS THE TRAWSCYMRU T3), IS OPERATED BY COASTLINE TAXIS WITH 2 SERVICES PER DAY IN EACH DIRECTION AND TAKING 37 MINUTES TO REACH LLANGOLLEN ?

QUESTION 14  IS THE MINISTER AWARE THAT AN AN HOURLY BUS SERVICE (ARRIVA NO 2 WITH 14 SERVICES PER DAY IN BOTH DIRECTIONS) RUNS FROM OSWESTRY TO WREXHAM VIA CHIRK , RUABON AND JOHNSTOWN AND COVERS MOST OF THE CURRENTT3 ROUTE BETWEEN LLANGOLLEN AND WREXHAM?

Question 15 Could the Minister give the reason why passengers travelling to points between Wrexham and Llangollen cannot use local bus services(X5 and Arriva no 5 and no 2) instead of the Trawscymru T3 service?

Question 16 Could the Minister give the reason why the part of the T3 route between Wrexham and Llangollen , which is well served by local buses (X5 and Arriva no 5 and no 2), cannot be made into a direct route via the A5/A483 to save between 10 and 15 minutes in T3 journey time both into and out of Wrexham.?

Question 17  Is the Minister aware that a saving of between 10 and 15 minutes in T3 journey time into and out of Wrexham would :-

1. a) avoid the consistently late arrivals at Wrexham and Dolgellau
2. b) avoid the waits of 15 minutes currently imposed on the T2 (Bangor to Aberystwyth) services in Dolgellau to wait for the T3 from Wrexham.
3. c) allow connectivity of the T2 and T1 services to be restored in Aberystwyth and therefore meet the published Welsh Transport Strategy. ?

Question 18  Is the Minister aware that a saving of between 10 and 15 minutes in T3 journey time into and out of Wrexham would allow the last T2 service of the day to arrive in Aberystwyth from Bangor at 18.30 and therefore comfortably connect with the last T1 service from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen at 18.40.?     This would allow passengers from Gwyned and Powys (between Bangor and Aberystwyth) to use the 15.15 T2 departure from Bangor to catch the 18.40 T1 from Aberystwyth and connect to the last train to Cardiff in Carmarthen.

Question 19  In view of the evidence supplied below based on 17 Trawscymru T1 journeys from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen rail station where the worst late arrival was 4 minutes late could the Minister say why the Trawscymru Network Manager insisted in 2016 that 10 minutes connection time was necessary for connection with the train by the 18.40 T1 departure from Aberystwyth. ?

Question 20  In view of the evidence supplied below based on 17 Trawscymru T1 journeys from Aberystwyth to Carmarthen rail station could the Minister say why the T1 departure from Aberystwyth at 18.40 could not be changed to say 18.43 which would leave 7 minutes for the T1 to connect with the train in Carmarthen?

Question 21   Can the Minister give the reason why on 01/01/2018 the departure time of all T2 services from Bangor were brought forward by 10 minutes, the journey time between Bangor and Caernarfon increased by 10 minutes and the total journey time between Bangor and Aberystwyth increased by 10 minutes ?

Question 22  Could the Minister give the reason why on 01/01/2018 there was only one T2 service,  where the total journey between Bangor and Aberystwyth was increased by 20 minutes and not 10 minutes, and this one T2 service was the 18.40 arrival in Aberystwyth  where T1 departs to Carmarthen at 18.40 ?   Could the Minister also give the reason why on 01/01/2018 all other T2 services from Bangor had their total journey time increased by only 10 minutes and not 20 minutes ?

Question 23  Could the Minister give the reason why on 01/01/2018 the 18.40 T2 arrival in Aberystwyth was changed to 18.50 by inserting 10 minutes of delay near Aberystwyth ?   Could the Minister give the reason why an unnecessary  wait of 5 minutes in Machynleth (16 miles from Aberystwyth) and an unnecessary 5 minute diversion off the a487 on the edge of Aberystwyth through a small village and an Aberystwyth housing estate were introduced ?

Question 24   Could the Minister give the reason why the 18.50 T2 arrival in Aberystwyth cannot be changed back to 18.40 by removing the wait of 5 minutes in Machynleth  and removing the 5 minute diversion off the a487 on the edge of Aberystwyth through a small village and an Aberystwyth housing estate?

Question 25   Could the Minister give the reason why the 18.50 T2 arrival in Aberystwyth cannot be changed back to 18.40 and the T1 departure time in Aberystwyth be changed to from 18.40 to 18.43 giving 3 minutes of connection time in Aberystwyth and leaving the T1 7 minutes to connect with the last train to Cardiff in Carmarthen ?   (NB the Trawscymru T1C coach service from Aberystwyth introduced in April 2018 has only 3 minutes of connectivity in Carmarthen to the Trawscymru T1S to Swansea.)

Question 26   Could the Minister give the reason why the Trawscymru T2 departure from Dolgellau cannot be changed to 8.00 instead of 8.10 to allow passengers from North of Aberystwyth to reach Aberystwyth at 9.15 and connect with the T1C coach service from Aberystwyth. to Cardiff ?

Question 27   Could the Minister give the reason why the Trawscymru T1C departure from Aberystwyth to Cardiff  cannot be changed to 9.25 instead of 9.30  to allow passengers 8 minutes of connectivity instead of 3 minutes in Carmarthen to the Trawscymru T1S service to Swansea?

Question 28   Can the Minister give the reason why a Trawscymru route between Oswestry/Chirk and Bangor (via Wrexham) has been reviewed by the Welsh Government?

Question 29  Is the Minister aware of the following services between Oswestry/Chirk and Wrexham :-

(1) An hourly bus service (Arriva no 2)  from Oswestry to Wrexham via Chirk , Ruabon and Johnstown taking 60 minutes (43 minutes Chirk to Wrexham) and covering most of the current T3 route between Llangollen and Wrexham .

(2) EasyBus operates a bus from Wrexham to Oswestry and Oswestry to  Wrexham . with six services per day in both directions taking 25 minutes.

(3) An hourly train which runs from Chirk to Wrexham and which takes 12 minutes

Question 30 In view of the services outlined in question 29 can the Minister give the reason why part of the new Trawscymru bus route under review is between Oswestry/Chirk and Wrexham ?

Question 31 Can the Minister give the reason why a Trawscymru route between Oswestry/Chirk and Bangor (via Wrexham) is necessary, when there is a fast train service from Chirk to Bangor (via Wrexham) with 14 services per day and taking between 1 hr 43 minutes and .2 hrs 18 minutes ?

Question 32 Could the Minister give the reason why questions such as those above are considered by the Welsh Government to be “”vexatious”” and why the Welsh Government refuse to answer them.