The Liberal Democrats Have a Leadership Election as Well and We will be Throwing the Kitchen Sink at the Forthcoming By-Election in Brecon & Radnorshire !

Dear Sirs,

We are truly living in strange and very worrying political times. I cannot remember anything like it since I started getting interested in politics in my final year at primary school in 1969/70.

Since Theresa May announced she was standing down as Conservative Party leader on 7th June, the Brexit discussions have been put into the “pending” tray as the myriad of Conservative MP’s have thrown their hat into the ring to take on the poisoned chalice of Party Leader and Prime Minister. Brexit has seen the political demise of David Cameron and now Theresa May. So who is now going to be the next to take on this monumental task? The party of Disraeli, Churchill and Thatcher could be heading towards extinction, especially if Brexit goes badly. Of course it could result in the demise of the Conservative Party. They have become the party of Leave and no doubt former PM Ted Heath, who took us into the EEC in 1973, is spinning in his grave in Salisbury Cathedral, at how his party has changed beyond recognition.

The assumption is that Boris Johnson will become our next PM, but as we saw at the week-end, questions have been asked over the fact that the police were called out to his London flat because of a commotion, involving Boris and his partner. Boris has stayed silent. By the time this goes to press and you are reading this, anything could have happened as this competition of “The Conservatives Have Got Talent” is played out in the media spotlight. Until now, the news carries report after report of Boris having the massive support in the Conservative Party Membership. But will that still be the case as this contest is not certain to result in a coronation for Boris as the banana skins are thrown into the contest. Will Jeremy come through from behind and steal the throne in the Conservative Party’s own version of Game of Thrones? Who knows.

We are also told that if Boris wins, there could be an immediate vote of no confidence and he could become the shortest serving PM in our history, thus beating the current holder, George Canning, who died in office in 1827, after just 119 days.

But whilst the British public might be despairing at the prospect of Boris or Hunt becoming PM, The Liberal Democrats are in the midst of its own leadership campaign, which is not getting the same media coverage as the Conservatives are. But with the Conservatives and Labour performing poorly in the polls, the Lib Dems are on the ascendency and we could be electing a future Prime Minister. Who knows?

Until recently, many had written off the Liberal Democrats, but there has been a remarkable comeback under Sir Vince Cable. With 705 seat gains in the English Council elections in May (400-500 were predicted), the momentum continued and 16 seats were gained 3 weeks later in the European parliament elections. The Liberal Democrats may not have won a seat in Wales, but we came in Pembrokeshire, we came ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

On Saturday, I was among the 200 Liberal Democrat members in Wales, who attended the hustings in Llandrindod Wells to hear our 2 excellent candidates make their pitch and answer questions from members. Questions asked covered Brexit, the qualities and style of leadership, benefits reform, Northern Ireland, agriculture and the environment.

Current Deputy Leader, Jo Swinson takes on Ed Davey. Jo served as Junior Equalities Minister in the 2010-15 coalition, whilst Ed was Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change. Either would make an excellent leader of the Liberal Democrats, when Sir Vince formally hands the baton to his successor on 23rd July.

So whilst the Conservatives leadership campaign has dominated the news, the Liberal Democrats are also about to have a new Leader. But I can imagine our new leader will be in post a lot longer than our new Prime Minister will be. And with the dire state of both the Conservatives and Labour Parties, it’s possible that both of the old major parties have gone past their sell by date, especially as we have seen the rise of the Brexit Party. Whilst the Brexit Party could be seen as a one issue party, the Liberal Democrats are revitalised and have a new lease of life. Indeed, the media are already saying that we will win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election when it is called.

In 2013, as Party President, Tim Farron MP said we were a bunch of nutters and “… a bit like cockroaches after a nuclear war…..we are made of sterner stuff. Well, after our drubbing in the 2015 General Election, the Party’s future looked bleak. I think we can now say that we are definitely not nutters as we can now point the finger at plenty of others in the House of Commons. Also, if we are cockroaches, we have survived, and we are back!

Of course, Llandrindod Wells is in the heart of the Brecon & Radnorshire Parliamentary constituency. The day before, it was announced that 10,005 voters signed the recall petition. 10% of voters were required to force a by-election, but that was comfortably beaten as 19% signed. Conservative MP Chris Davies lost his seat after he was fined £1500 and given a community order of 50 hours unpaid work after he admitted two offences related to fake expenses claims.

Last Sunday, the Conservatives voted to put Chris Davies’ name forward as their candidate in the forthcoming by-election. The seat had been held by the Liberal Democrats for 23 years up to 2015 and Welsh Party leader, Jane Dodds is the prospective Parliamentary candidate for the seat. The betting suggests that the Welsh Liberal Democrats will take back the seat which will make things even more precarious for the next PM, as the October 31st deadline approaches for us to leave the EU.

The ITV political reporter Adrian Masters has said the Liberal Democrats threw the kitchen sink at the recall petition and that we will do the same in the by-election. Of course we will. The people of Brecon & Radnorshire demand better of their MP and we will be backing our Welsh Party Leader, Jane Dodds, to win the by-election that will be held on 1st August.

So, now is a good time for us to be Positively Liberal as we look forward to the announcement for the by-election to be called. I am backing Ed Davey to become our next Party Leader and with a rough seas ahead on the political front as we approach 31st October, we need a strong leader to take on Boris, Jeremy and Nigel. Any comments? Please email me at andrew.lye@pembslibdems.wales. We will be flying the Welsh Liberal Democrat flag at the Pembrokeshire County Show, so come and say hello.

Andrew Lye

Chair of Pembrokeshire Liberal Democrats.