Tories could win up to 16 seats in Wales, but narrowing of polls means tactical voting will be decisive

A new round of MRP data released by pro-EU group Best for Britain shows that the Conservative Party could win up to 16 seats in Wales at the upcoming general election. Their chances of a majority rests on them holding and gaining a significant number of increasingly marginal seats – meaning tactical voting will be decisive. 

The seat-by-seat analysis of 39,476 British adults was carried out between 15 October and 24 November by Focaldata and is the first MRP poll to adjust for the impact of the Brexit Party standing candidates down in 317 Conservative held seats and 40 more non-Conservative held seats, as well as the Unite to Remain alliance.

Without tactical voting, Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru would hold a combined 265 seats. This scenario would see the Conservative Party win up to 366 seats and a majority in Parliament, having been boosted by roughly three quarters (73.4%) of Brexit Party voters who no longer have a Brexit Party candidate in their seat.

Best for Britain have therefore identified 57 target seats, including 8 in Wales, where the chances of pro-EU voters successfully using their votes tactically to prevent a Conservative victory are highest. These include seats such as Cardiff North, Delyn, and Aberconwy. According to our data, it would take less than 4,000 tactical votes in these seats to prevent the Conservative Party winning.

In 27 of these seats it would take less than 2,000 tactical votes to prevent a Conservative victory. In Ynys Môn it would take just 708 Plaid voters backing Labour to prevent the Conservative Party winning the seat.

Nationally, Best for Britain estimates it could take as little as 117,314 pro-EU voters using their vote tactically to prevent a Tory majority – representing less than 1% of those who voted in 2017.

The data, used to inform Best for Britain’s tactical voting recommendations at getvoting.org, is the second release by the Best for Britain campaign during this election period, with a final update due on 9 December – three days before polling day.

The campaign launched its tactical voting tool on 30 October at a press conference attended by former Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable, Independent MP Dominic Grieve and Labour MP Anna McMorrin.

The latest recommendations have been released to coincide with the first wave of postal votes landing on doorsteps.

Regional findings from the data

• Our data predicts that in Wales the Conservatives could win up to 16 seats, taking 8 from Labour, who would win 20 seats. Plaid Cymru would win 4 seats (no change from 2017) and the Liberal Democrats would win 0 seats, losing Brecon and Radnorshire which they won in a by-election in August.
• Prominent Remainers Anna McMorrin (Cardiff North), Tonia Antoniazzi (Gower) and Madeleine Moon (Bridgend) would all lose their seats without tactical voting.
• However, if 4,000 or less pro-EU voters use their vote tactically in Best for Britain’s target seats in Wales, then Labour would hold onto all of their seats in the region and even make a gain from the Tories in Aberconwy, putting them on 29 seats. The Conservatives would win 7 seats and Plaid would hold onto their 4 seats.

National findings from the data

• Our data predicts that the Conservatives could win up to 366 seats, having been boosted by roughly three-quarters of the Brexit Party’s vote share where the Brexit Party have not fielded a candidate. Under this scenario, Labour would win 199 seats, Lib Dems would win 17 seats, SNP would win 44 seats, Plaid would win 4 seats and the Greens would win 1 seat
• However, with just 4,000 pro-EU voters using their vote tactically in Best for Britain’s 57 target seats, the Conservatives would be reduced to 309 seats – a dozen short of a majority. Labour would win 244 seats, SNP would win 52 seats, Lib Dems would win 22 seats, Plaid would win 4 seats and the Greens would win 1 seat.
• Best for Britain estimates that the election could be swung against the Conservatives by as few as 117,314 pro-EU voters using their vote tactically.
• Despite the boost received by the Conservatives from the Brexit Party, there is still a substantial number of seats where tactical voting could be decisive. There are 165 seats where fewer than 5,000 tactical votes would be enough to prevent the Conservative Party winning the seat (compared to 131 at the beginning of the election campaign). In 27 of these it would take fewer than 2,000 tactical votes.

Commenting, Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said:

“Our data shows that tactical voting will be decisive at the upcoming election.

“Even with the Brexit Party collapse, there are still lots of seats in play for remainers.

“This is crucial as it means they could be won by pro-EU parties if voters hold their nose and vote for the party with the best shot of beating the Tories.

“Having updated our recommendations just as the first wave of postal votes land on doorsteps, we’re confident that this election is up for grabs. We can stop Boris Johnson, and stop Brexit.”