Palme d’Or Study: Experts predict which nominees are likely to win

• The Old Oak is predicted to win the Palme d’Or award – new data reveals
• Perfect Days is the second favourite to win the Palme d’Or award
• New data reveals a drama is the most likely film to win the Palme d’Or award 

A brand-new study released by Japan-101 reveals the top 20 films predicted to win the Palme d’Or award at this year’s 76^th annual Cannes Film Festival. 

Using IMDb data, the Japan-101 team have indexed all titles nominated for the award at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, in comparison to all the previous award winners. 

Rankings are based on five metrics; the director’s previous wins, previous star cast wins, location, run time, and genre. Each metric was equally weighted to predict the winner of the Palme d’Or. 

Ranking at number one is the 2023 Ken Loach drama, The Old Oak, achieving a score of 53.65 out of 100. 

Written by Paul Laverty, the Old Oak tells the story of a pub landlord in a previously thriving mining community who struggles to hold onto his pub, whilst tensions rise in the town when Syrian refugees are placed in the empty houses in the community. 

Based on a formula from previous Palme d’Or award winners, The Old Oak is most likely to bring home the prize, with director Ken Loach and star members of the cast previously bringing home the prestigious award. 

This is also the last film for Loach, one of Britain’s most prolific and most political directors. 

Perfect Days is the second favourite contender in the study, with a score of 31.34 out of 100. The drama was directed by Wim Wenders who has had previous Palme d’Or award success.  

Perfect Days is an Japanese-German film which combines four short stories, starring Kōji Yakusho in the role of a toilet cleaner, this film is set to have its world premiere at Cannes Film Festival on 25 May 2023. 

A Brighter Tomorrow ranks in third, with a score of 30.46 out of 100, it was produced in Italy and France – which are location favourites based on previous winners.  

Directed by Nanni Moretti, the storyline is based around Giovanni, who is a director, and Paola, a producer. Giovanni shoots a film set in 1956, writes a film adaptation from John Cheever’s “The Swimmer” and imagines a film with many Italian songs. 

The fourth favourite is About Dry Grasses, the longest film in the top ten running for 197 minutes. With a score of 30.22 out of 100, this drama was produced in Turkey and directed by Nuri Bilge Ceylan. 

Starring Deniz Celiloğlu, Merve Dizdar and Musab Ekici, the storyline is based on a young teacher who hopes to be appointed to Istanbul after mandatory duty at a small village. After a long time waiting, he loses all hope of escaping from this gloomy life. 

Scraping fifth place is Fallen Leaves, a 2023 Finnish comedy-drama film written and directed by Aki Kaurismäki. Scoring 27.12 out of 100, it is the shortest film in the top 10, with an 81-minute running time.  

Fallen Leaves is Kaurismäki’s 20th full-length film and a continuation of his Proletariat Trilogy, which already includes Shadows in Paradise (1986), Ariel (1988) and The Match Factory Girl. 

Rounding out the top five is Monster, Homecoming, May December, Last Summer and Black Flies. 

A spokesperson at Japan-101 commented on the study findings: 

“There are some big names in the top ten, including Ken Loach who has said he will likely be concluding his career with The Old Oak. 

“This year, there is a record number of female filmmakers in the competition, with a total of seven of the 21 Competition titles directed by women. 

“Amongst the top ten are two female talents Catherine Corsini and Catherine Breillat, with Homecoming and Last Summer, both French productions. 

“The study also reveals Alice Rohrwacher and Jessica Hausner are amongst the top 20 ranking with La Chimera and Club Zero.  

“Cannes Film Festival is an 11-day celebration of films recognizing brilliant titles from the promising Class of 2023. 

 “As we look forward to world premieres, the Cannes Film Festival has everything a movie and pop-culture fanatic could ask for, from a wide range of films, eye-catching fashion, and of course big movie star talent.”