20mph safety claims in Wales

Dear Sir,

During 2022, police recorded road collisions resulting in 4,447 casualties in Wales. Of these casualties, 95 were fatal and 921 people were seriously injured, a decrease of 15% on 2019. 3,431 suffered slight injuries, a decrease of 26%. The overall decrease in collisions was 23.5% since 2019. Young people aged 16 to 24, 11% of the population, accounted for 22% of all casualties. The £32 million cost of altering speed limits from 30 to 20mph across cities, towns, villages and hamlets across Wales will, according to the Welsh Government, save up to 100 lives and 20,000 casualties over the next decade – useful round numbers. While saving around 10% of deaths, Wales will save 45% of casualties – a strange calculation indeed. If we use 2022 as a base with 4,500 casualties and 100 deaths, and assume that the current figures are a good baseline, there would be 45,000 casualties and 1,000 deaths (most outside inhabited areas) over the next 10 years. Even if we look at deaths rising by 5% pa, road deaths would be 178 in year 10 – with just 10 lives saved per annum, a worse statistic than we have today.

In the 2020 questionnaire leading to the new law, one question was ‘What concerns do you have about roads and road safety and getting about where you live?‘ The main spontaneous answers were ‘Potholes / roads in poor state of repair’ 35% and ‘Speeding traffic / cars driving too fast’ 16%. A ‘leading question’ was ‘Would you support a speed limit of 20mph in the area in which you live?‘ which would lead to a biased answer. Checking my car and with local garages, a petrol car driven at 30mph in 4th gear proceeds at 1,500 rpm, around the same engine turnover as in a car in 3rd gear traveling at 20mph. Thus in towns and villages, car emissions will be 50% higher in the extra time taken to travel at 20mph. Pollution will thus be 50% worse in these areas, causing higher death rates. So much for the claim of saving the Welsh NHS £92 million a year, as cancers and lung-related illnesses will accelerate death rates in 20mph areas. One does not expect publication of the statistics upon which accident casualties in Wales were predicted, nor another £32 million being spent upon reinstating 30mph areas.