Council cuts: 63 constituencies facing slashed funding in 2024 [forecast]

Amid reports that The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) will assess claims that Pensions Minister Paul Maynard broke parliamentary rules by using taxpayer money to fund Conservative Party work and campaigning, Digital PR Company Reboot Online examined parliamentary spending across the United Kingdom to determine the impact of rising inflation on MP spending.¹ To do so, budget and spending data from the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (IPSA) from 2016 to 2021 was analysed.

Total spending data was forecasted for the years 2022-2024 using a linear model based on historical data and then adjusted to Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, using a combination of OECD rates and forecasted rates. This provides a statistical foundation for understanding how MP spending may have been impacted by recent economic pressures and cost-cutting measures, ultimately determining which constituencies could be affected.

The MPs with the largest projected spending cuts in 2024 

*The Consumer Price Index data for 2024 is forecasted using a simple linear model based on previous yearly data. Spending refers to the figure that was claimed back by MP’s per year.

The MP for Brentwood and Ongar is forecasted greatest cut in spending

Digital PR Company Reboot Online have projected that the MP for Brentwood and Ongar Alex Burghat will employ the most substantial spending cut in 2024, with an anticipated difference in claimed expenses of almost a third (-28.65%) compared to 2021 spending data. This is a significant difference in spending compared to Eleanor Laing, the MP for the neighbouring constituency of Epping Forest, who is forecasted a +67.36% change in spending from 2021 to 2024.

Sandra Osborne, the MP for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, is also expecting a reduction in total spending of over a quarter (-25.23%) from 2021 to 2024. In Gordon, another Scottish constituency, Richard Thomson is forecasted to claim –18.48% less in 2024 expenses compared to 2021 figures.

The MP for Kingswood, Chris Skidmore, is expected to see expenses impacted with a –19.73% cut in spending, falling from £160,457.82 to £128,795.57. This is a stark contrast when compared to the neighbouring constituency of Filton and Bradley Stoke, where MP Jack Lopresti is forecasted to have a spending difference of +19.84% in 2024.

The MPs with the largest projected spending change in 2024

The MP for Kettering is projected the highest change in local spending

Digital PR Company Reboot Online’s study forecasted that Philip Hollobone, the MP for Kettering, will claim a +74.44% difference in expenses from 2021 to 2024. This is a significant difference in projected spending when compared to neighbouring constituency Daventry, where MP Chris Heaton-Harris is forecasted to claim a difference of just +8.59% in the same period.

The MP for Swansea West, Geraint Davies, is also projected to be among the least affected constituencies by inflation in 2024, where claimed expenses are projected to change by +69.34% from 2021 levels. In comparison, spending in Swansea East (Carolyn Harris) is forecasted to change by just  +8.60% in the same period.

Stella Creasy’s expenses, the MP for Walthamstow, are expected to change by +69.04% despite rising inflation rates and the cost of living crisis. Projected claimed expenses are forecasted to rise from £249,844.49 to £422,336.27.

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Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, a constituency in Scotland, is also expected to see a reduction in total spending of over a quarter (-25.23%) from 2021 to 2024. In Gordon, another Scottish constituency, there is predicted to be an –18.48% cut in 2024 spending compared to 2021 figures.

The 10 constituencies with the largest projected spending increases in 2024

Kettering is projected to have the highest increase in local spending

Digital PR Company Reboot Online’s study forecasted that Kettering (Northamptonshire) will see a +74.44% increase in spending from 2021 to 2024. This is a significant increase in projected spending compared to neighbouring constituency Daventry where there is a forecasted local spending increase of just +8.59% in the same period.

Swansea West is also projected to be among the least affected constituencies by local government spending cuts in 2024, where local spending is projected to increase by +69.34% from 2021 levels. In comparison, spending in Swansea East is forecasted to increase by just  +8.60% in the same period.

Walthamstow (Greater London) is the third constituency expected to experience a substantial increase in local government spending, despite rising inflation rates and the cost of living crisis. Projected spending in Walthamstow in 2024 is +69.04% higher than the spending in 2021, rising from £249,844.49 to £422,336.27.

Credit  to https://www.rebootonline.com/digital-pr/ who commissioned the data.