Narrowing Of Plaid/Labour Majorities

The Conservatives could be reduced to just one seat in Wales according to latest polling data, with a narrowing of the lead for Plaid Cymru and Labour respectively in Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion’s two new seats.

Recent polls have predicted a safe win for Plaid in Ceredigion Preseli, and a narrower win for Labour in Mid and South Pembrokeshire.

As part of constituency changes, Pembrokeshire’s previous seats of Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, are now no more.

As part of the changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey

Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.

Earlier this month, global public opinion and data company YouGov recently had predicted the Ceredigion Preseli seat would see a comfortable Plaid Cymru win, at 42.8 per cent, with Labour second on 17.6 per cent, followed by Conservatives (11.7), Reform (8.5), Liberal Democrats (8.3), and Greens (4.9).

YouGov’s figures for the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat had predicted a Labour win, with 42.6 per cent of the vote, followed by Conservatives on 33.4, Reform 9.4, Plaid Cymru 7.4, Liberal Democrats 3.6, and Green 2.8.

The predictions have now been amended to show a narrower margin; a Ceredigion Preseli Plaid win with 36 per cent of the votes, followed by Labour, Conservative and Reform tying on 14 per cent each, with the Lib-Dems on 13 per cent, Green five per cent, and others three per cent.

For Mid and South Pembrokeshire, the latest figures show a narrower Labour win (33 per cent) over the Conservatives (29), followed by Reform (19), Plaid Cymru (8), Lib-Dems (6), Green (4), and others (1).

There’s now a 15-candidate battle for the two seats, eight in Mid and South Pembrokeshire and seven in Ceredigion Preseli.

With a July 4 date set for the general election, the currently declared candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika, (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).

Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.

Wales-wide the latest YouGov poll sees the Conservatives holding on to just Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr in a narrow 28 percent to 25 per cent lead over Labour, neighbouring Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe seeing a Liberal Democrat win over the Conservatives.

Plaid Cymru are currently on course to win four seats: Ceredigion Preseli, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Caerfyrddin, and Ynys Môn, the latter a 31 per cent Plaid, 27 per cent Labour vote.