New Barn Cymru poll puts Reform UK on level with Conservatives

The Conservatives have slumped to a record low in Wales in a new opinion poll which shows the party neck and neck with a surging Reform UK.

The Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, has revealed that their predicted share – 16% – would be lower even than the amount they won in 1997 (19.6%) which saw not a single Welsh Conservative MP elected.

Whilst the poll still points to a clear run for Labour in Thursday’s general election, the party’s share of the vote for the Senedd Election has reduced to 27%, which could signal some longer term problems for the Labour party in Wales.

The poll also highlights that support for Vaughan Gething has plummeted in the last month, with the latest polling figures showing that 64% of those surveyed believing he is doing badly as First Minister of Wales, with 56% also thinking that he should step down from his role.

Westminster voting intention:

(YouGov MRP Model)

• Labour – 40% (-5))

• Conservative – 16% (-2)

• Reform UK – 16% (+3)

• Plaid Cymru – 14% (+2)

• Lib Dem – 7% (+2)

• Green – 5% (+1)

• Other – 2% (+1)

Senedd voting intention:

• Labour – 27% (-3)

• Plaid Cymru – 23%

• Conservative – 18% (-1)

• Reform UK – 18% (+6)

• Lib Dem – 6%

• Green – 5% (-1)

• Other – 3% (-1)

Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said:

“The Westminster vote intention figures in this Barn Cymru poll are for the first time derived from an MRP model. This means taking a regular opinion poll – with a slightly larger sample size than normal – and using information from the census to estimate how different groups in Wales will vote.

The results are a huge blow to the Conservatives, with only 16% of respondents saying they will vote for the incumbents on Thursday. This is the party’s worst ever YouGov poll in Wales and, if replicated on election day, would represent the worst Conservative performance in Wales since the 1918 General Election.

While Labour’s numbers are about the same as 2019, an election which saw the party sink to its fewest seats in decades, they will be facing much weaker opposition in most seats as a result of this Conservative collapse. As such, they can expect to make substantial gains in current Conservative seats but may not fare as well in the two Plaid Cymru-Labour marginals: Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin.

The poll also records Reform UK’s highest vote intention figures to date. The party has capitalised on the collapse of Conservative support with nearly a third of previous Conservative voters now saying they will vote for Reform. While they are very unlikely to challenge for any seats in Wales, it’s possible they will finish the elections as the second largest party in terms of vote share in Wales.

Like all opinion polls, it’s important to remember that there is still a margin of error and this is only one poll. But it is consistent with wider trends in previous Barn Cymru polls and UK polling trends which shows the Conservatives heading for an historic defeat.”

Adrian Masters, ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor said:

“The latest Barn Cymru poll may give Labour pause for thought about its support here in Wales in the longer term, but the news is far worse and far more pressing for the Conservatives.  Not only will that figure horrify Tories here, so too will the fact that the poll puts them level-pegging with Reform UK, a symbolic first that the party will not have wanted to see.

The poll will bolster Plaid Cymru’s hopes of reaching three or four seats and encourage the Liberal Democrats in their belief that they could have a Welsh MP once again.

But should Labour be worried about its reduced share? The fact that it’s slipping could suggest that the Conservatives’ strategy of warning against a supermajority is having an effect or it could reflect that sustained public criticism of Labour’s record in Welsh Government is cutting through, as is criticism of the still-new Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Vaughan Gething.  And while the indications are that none of that will materially affect the results this week, it could suggest some longer-term problems for Labour here in Wales.”

Barn Cymru July 2024 Westminster VI.xlsx – RESULTS

Barn Cymru July 2024 Senedd VI_leader ratings.xlsx – RESULTS