Confidence in the UK economy plummets amongst Welsh high net worth individuals

•  Confidence in the UK economy falls in all regions of the UK
• The number of HNWIs in Wales feeling confident about the UK economy drops from 91% to 67%
• Despite the sharp fall, Wales remains the most confident overall (67%) while the South East is the least (25%)
• East Midlands experiences the steepest drop in economic confidence among high net worth individuals (HNWI) living in the region, falling by 52% to just 35% since August 2024
• Every region of the UK has seen double digit declines in confidence

Confidence in the UK economy has fallen sharply across all regions among high net worth individuals;  in Wales the number that feel confident has dropped from 91% to just 67% while the East Midlands has seen the steepest decline, dropping from 87% to just 35%, according to the latest Wealth Index Report from wealth management firm Saltus.

Fewer than half (48%) of HNWIs nationally have confidence in the UK economy, a fall from 84% in August 2024. This is the lowest level of confidence ever recorded by the Saltus Wealth Index Report, which has been tracking HNWIs’ confidence in the UK since 2021.

This picture varies significantly by region, with the East Midlands (-52%), South East (-44%), West Midlands (-42%), and Scotland (-41%) experiencing the most significant falls. Including Wales (67%), just four of the UK’s 11 nations and regions – the others are Greater London (65%), North East (63%), and Northern Ireland (60%) – maintain HNWI confidence above 50%

Declines in economic confidence (January 2025 v August 2024):

• Wales: 67% confidence down from 91% (-24%)
• South East: 25% confidence down from 69%  (-44%)
• South West: 34% confidence down from 66%  (-32%)
• East Midlands: 35% confidence down from 87% (-52%)
• East of England: 39% confidence down from 90% (-17%)
• Yorkshire & The Humber: 41% confidence down from 77% (-36%)
• West Midlands: 45% confidence down from 87% (-42%)
• Scotland: 46% confidence down from  87% (-41%)
• North West: 49% confidence down from  69% (-20%)
• Northern Ireland: 60% confidence down from 87% (-27%)
• North East: 63% confidence down from  90%(-27%)
• Greater London: 65% confidence down from 78% (-13%)
• UK average: 48% confidence down from 84% (-36%)

The Saltus Wealth Index itself, a measure calculated in partnership with Dr Michael Peacey of the University of Bristol, now stands at 58.2 nationally, a 13% fall from 66.9 when the Index was last published in August 2024. The Index figure today represents a record low since it was first published.

Mike Stimpson, Partner at wealth management firm Saltus, said: “The data paint a stark picture of declining confidence across all regions of the UK. While some areas have historically been more resilient, even these regions are now feeling the effects of economic uncertainty. The sharp declines highlight how concerns about taxation, business growth and cost of living pressures are taking their toll on the UK’s wealth creators.”

Confidence in personal finances remains more stable

HNWIs remain more confident in their own personal finances than the broader economy, but in some regions, confidence levels are also starting to wane. Northern Ireland leads the decline and is now the least confident area in the UK, with a significant drop in personal finance confidence since August 2024 from 93% to 73% today. The East of England has also seen a notable fall from 95% to 82%.

The findings also show that taxation remains a critical concern for HNWIs, with 83% expecting further tax increases in the next 12 months. Respondents anticipate rises in Capital Gains Tax (38%), Income Tax (37%) and Inheritance Tax (35%), with many citing these potential changes as a significant risk to their wealth.

A further key issue is the impact of VAT on private school fees, which has led to a rise in financial strain among HNWIs with children in private education. Over four in ten (42%) private school parents are now considering making changes to their child’s schooling due to the tax, including moving them to a less expensive school or switching to state education.

Stimpson added: “Confidence is critical for growth, and the fact that so many HNWIs feel uncertain about the prospects for the UK economy is concerning. High tax rates, policy uncertainty and personal finance pressures are all contributing to this downward trend. This lack of confidence creates real risk that that investment and entrepreneurship could be stifled, which can only further exacerbate economic challenges.”